Pachter: Aaron Greenberg and Kaz Hirai Are Both Right

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9rq1cpvia gamedaily

As you’ve no doubt seen by now, Sony’s Kaz Hirai and Microsoft’s Aaron Greenberg have been getting into a little war of words lately. Hirai still sees Sony as the industry leader in video games and he doesn’t think Xbox 360 has longevity, while Greenberg has called Sony “out of touch” and he doesn’t see a scenario in which Xbox 360 could lose its installed base lead to PS3.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter – never afraid to share his opinion – contacted GameDaily BIZ to let us know that both Hirai and Greenberg are right. “Aaron Greenberg is right that Sony likely won’t catch Microsoft in the U.S. until at least 2014. Kaz is right that Sony will likely catch Microsoft globally,” said Pachter.

He then provided further analysis: “Please keep in mind that both consoles are offered in North America, Europe and Japan. Sony likely has a 4 million unit lead in Japan, is behind by 7 million in North America, and is behind in Europe by 2 million. My guess is that Sony can sell 2 million PS3s per year more than Microsoft in Japan for the next several years, and can catch up in Europe in two or three years. So by the end of 2011, Sony should be even in Europe, ahead by 10 million units in Japan, and behind by a greater margin than 7 million in North America. If the Xbox 360 outsells the PS3 by 1 million units per year for 2009, 2010 and 2011, the two consoles will be in a dead heat by the end of 2011.

“You should note that the 360 outsold the PS3 in the U.S. by 1.2 million units in 2008 (according to NPD), with an average price of $300 compared to an average for PS3 of $418. If PS3 comes down to $299 some time this year, it’s likely that the two consoles will sell around the same number of units, with a slight edge to Sony because of Blu-ray. If the 360 price is cut further, Microsoft can likely sustain its advantage, but it may have difficulty selling 1 million more per year.”

Pachter also joked, “Funny that nobody is talking about catching the Wii…” Of course, at this point the Wii is probably uncatchable and could very well end up becoming the best selling console ever.

- A Big Shot

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A Big Shot

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Comments
  1. MOE-GUNZ-JACKSON

    1 / 22 / 2009 11:31 am

    Agree. I think the Wii is in a whole different market so I don’t really compare them with Sony and Microsoft.

    Also Please show your support by registering for the forums. Its easy and a fun place.

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  2. A Big Shot

    1 / 22 / 2009 11:43 am

    The Wii is in a whole different market because it’s kicking Sony and Microsoft’s asses lol

    Reply

  3. WE--G

    1 / 22 / 2009 12:17 pm

    the console of this generation will be the wii no matter what anyone says it really is destroying the PS3 and 360, whether it’s appealing to a different market or not
    i don’t even own a wii because i’m not a casual game but even i say it should have been the console of 2008, no one can give me a real reason why it isn’t, just look at the numbers

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  4. WE--G

    1 / 22 / 2009 12:30 pm

    apart from it’s graphics are s**t lol

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  5. billyjunxix

    1 / 22 / 2009 1:37 pm

    PS3 all the way!

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  6. IndoAssassin

    1 / 22 / 2009 2:54 pm

    M$ has done a good job with gaining some major ground this gen. And I gotta give props to Nintendo when everybody was just making fun of them at the beginning they sure did shut everyone up. I’ll wait till the end of this year to comment on Sony to compare what the 360 did in 3 years with what the PS3 does in 3 years.

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  7. MOE-GUNZ-JACKSON

    1 / 22 / 2009 3:58 pm

    @ A BIG SHOT

    Why do you see everyone comparing 360 and PS3 because they are in the Hardcore gamer market. 360 is now trying to get into the casual market but we know how that is going to end up.

    I didn’t say that because Nintendo is on top, I have no problem with that. Its just clear to me that they took the casual route witch is a total different market than MS and Sony did. Its smart, and yes thats where the most money is.

    Kaz was right when he said Nintendo is in a different world, because everyone knows its in a total different market.

    The battle is really between MS and Sony, because they are trying to gain the most “GAMERS”.

    I don’t know if anyone will understand me so i’m going to shut up lol.

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  8. rico_fiasco

    1 / 22 / 2009 5:47 pm

    Wii doesn’t even compare to ps3 and wii. I understand u moe gunz…….

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  9. Troyson

    1 / 22 / 2009 6:34 pm

    This is a very interesting battle between PS3 and 360. Can’t wait to see who wins, but I’m going for the under dog, PS3!

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  10. rico_fiasco

    1 / 22 / 2009 7:05 pm

    edit. meant to say xbox in my last post insead of “wii”….

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  11. obiloww

    1 / 22 / 2009 10:35 pm

    in all honesty, i think sony will not beat ms in console sales, at least in the US. however, they will do just fine. to me ps3 has won, not on sales but on value. sony will not win a prize competition against ms because ps3 is more expensive to make,and they can only go so far lowering the ps3 price. toyota will always sell more units of their car brand than lambogini will, but which one do u think is better at the end of the day.

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  12. smokewitme

    1 / 23 / 2009 4:16 am

    Sony went from 1st selling over 150 million consoles to dead last. M$ had only sold 24 million in the previous gen, now they’re all of sudden competeting with juggernaunt that is sony. And they’re doing well considering all the hardware failure. SO WHAT SONYS EXCUSE?? MS should be pleased that they’re at least going toe to toe with Sony.

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  13. A Big Shot

    1 / 23 / 2009 8:21 am

    @ Troyson

    The under dog is 360, Playstation brand has been around for way longer ;-)

    @ everyone

    if you want to separate consoles, then EACH ONE is in their own space!

    PS3 is a Blu-Ray player/console
    360 is an online gaming console
    Wii is a casual party console

    Each offer a completely different experience and each has something it does better than it’s competitors. The reason why separating consoles is a cop out is cause they all are competitors in the gaming market regardless of any differences.

    Same with handhelds. Is the DS in a different market than the PSP? Hell no…makes no sense at all.

    @ smokewitme

    Good point. It’s remarkable that a company with way less experience in console gaming is giving the big dog a run for their money, I don’t think people take the time to look at that without bias.

    Reply

  14. XkawsX

    1 / 23 / 2009 2:49 pm

    @A Big Shot

    The PS3 is a console/blu ray player/online gaming console. I just got finished playing R2, COD 4 and Battlefield:BC online with my friends so I don’t see how it’s not an online gaming console. Plus the PS3 is the underdog of this generation because everybody expects the PS3 to end up in last place and it gets the most backlash from the media.

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  15. smokewitme

    1 / 23 / 2009 6:24 pm

    xkawsX I think you missed his point.

    Analogy: When a football team wins the super bowl, they’re usually the odds on favorite to win it the next year. Sony won last gen, so why would they be underdogs this gen??? They’re the largest of the three companies. Underdogs? NO.

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  16. MOE-GUNZ-JACKSON

    1 / 23 / 2009 10:48 pm

    Don’t compare gaming with sports.

    Sony is clearly the underdog, and you seen that even before it was released. Thats the reason DLB started all this. PS3 never got a chance.

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  17. smokewitme

    1 / 24 / 2009 7:31 pm

    “Sony is clearly the underdog, and you seen that even before it was released”

    give me an example where the PS3 was the underdog during its release????

    I’m calling bullshit

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  18. MOE-GUNZ-JACKSON

    1 / 26 / 2009 8:49 am

    I guess your new to DLB-NETWORK. Why you think DLB started this, PS3 had crazy hate even before it came out. You see all the articles bashing the PS3. DLB even started this because all the hate. Sony became the underdog when they announced the price and built-in blu-ray drive. Once that was announced it was over, all you heard was Sony this, Sony that, all negative.

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